Neuro-Fuzzy Development Model to Calculate LOLE and Capacity Margin Probabilities

Abstract

Any power system needs a comprehensive study. The reliability of the system is a must, where the appropriate loss term is one of the required terms. In the present study, the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) is targeted. In addition, the LOLE is estimated using the advanced Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method. The LOLE and the Capacity Margin Probabilities (CMP) are calculated. The main target of the present study is to avoid the black-out of the system which is the novelty of the study for the considered power system which helps for a high reliable system also. Furthermore, the satisfaction of the economic development for the countries resulted using the developed model and the demand energy will be reached for different sectors at a required period. The results obtained for any considered country are reducing the capital investment and helping to limit the installed equipment plus the expectation of the load. Finally, the Neuro-Fuzzy is one of the most accurate methods. It is applied in the planning and development of electric power systems.