Novel Modeling of Forced Outage Rate Effect on the LOLP and LOLE

Abstract

Two important terms, the LOLP and LOLE, are helping to plan, design, operation, and maintenance of the power system is the reliability study. Therefore, future expectation needs the electric load of historical data. The present study concentrates on these two terms used in the reliability. These terms are the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) and Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE). These terms followed when the loss of load occurred as the electric load exceeds the available generating capacity of the system. As a measure of the LOLP and LOLE mean how much in time the load exceeds the available capacity of the system using the MATLAB (R2014b). A power plant has six power generated units combined and considered to form one power system plant. Then, the LOLP and LOLE are calculated for the system under different loads. This type of consideration is helping to plan the future of the power plant and finding the effect of load on power system reliability. At the same time, the LOLP-FOR and LOLE-FOR models investigated.